What Is the MVRV Z-Score?
The MVRV Z-Score is one of the most respected on-chain valuation metrics in Bitcoin. It measures how far Bitcoin's market value has deviated from its realized value (roughly, the aggregate price at which all coins last moved), scaled by volatility. In plain terms: it tells you whether Bitcoin is wildly overvalued, fairly valued, or deeply undervalued relative to its own history. You can see it live on our bottom indicators page.
How Is It Calculated?
MVRV Z-Score = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ standard deviation of Market Cap.
- Market Cap: current price × circulating supply.
- Realized Cap: each coin valued at the price it last moved on-chain.
- The difference is normalized by volatility to keep the score comparable across cycles.
How to Read It
- Very high (red zone, historically ~7+): market is euphoric and overextended — past cycle tops.
- Around 0–1: price near the realized value — fair to undervalued.
- Below 0 (green zone): market value below realized value — historically a generational buying zone seen near bear market bottoms.
Why It Works
Realized value acts as an aggregate cost basis for the whole network. When market value falls below it, the average holder is underwater — a condition that has only occurred near major bottoms and has preceded every subsequent recovery. That's why it's a cornerstone of identifying Bitcoin bottoms.
Limitations
The MVRV Z-Score is a macro, slow-moving signal — not a day-trading tool. Its exact thresholds can drift as the market matures. Combine it with the Fear & Greed Index and the Bear Market Clock for a fuller read on where we are in the cycle.