What Is NUPL?
NUPL stands for Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. It estimates whether the Bitcoin network as a whole is sitting in unrealized profit or loss — in other words, if everyone sold today, would the market be in the green or the red? It's a powerful gauge of crowd psychology, tracked live on our bottom indicators page.
How Is It Calculated?
NUPL = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ Market Cap. The result is a ratio, usually shown as a percentage, that scales market-wide unrealized profit relative to total value.
The NUPL Sentiment Zones
- Capitulation (below 0): the network is in net loss — historically the bottom zone.
- Hope/Fear (0–0.25): early recovery or late decline.
- Optimism/Anxiety (0.25–0.5): mid-cycle.
- Belief/Denial (0.5–0.75): strong bull market.
- Euphoria/Greed (above 0.75): historically the top zone — extreme unrealized profit.
How to Use NUPL
NUPL is most useful at the extremes. Deep negative readings (capitulation) have marked every major bottom, while euphoria readings above 0.75 have flagged cycle tops. Use it together with the Fear & Greed Index — when on-chain capitulation and extreme fear align, the odds of being near a bottom are highest.
Limitations
Like all on-chain metrics, NUPL is a probabilistic, macro signal, not a precise timing tool. It can stay in a zone longer than expected. Check how it fits the broader picture on the Bear Market Clock and bear market history.